IMF Forecast
The IMF forecasts (published in April 2009) [190] world GDP in 2009 decreased by 1.3 per cent, and in 2010 will grow by 1.9 per cent. However, we must bear in mind that back in early 2009, IMF expects global growth to 0.5 percent in 2009 and 0.8 per cent - in 2010. Also reduced the forecast growth rate developed economies - is expected this year, their GDP to decline by an average of 3.8 per cent to 2 per cent expected earlier. In particular, the U.S. economy shrink by 2.8 per cent, the euro zone - at 4.2 percent, the UK - at 4.1 percent, and Japan - by 6,2 percent.
The volume of world trade in 2009 declined by 11 percent. In January 2009, the IMF believed that we should expect to reduce this figure to 2.8 percent. In 2010, growth in world trade will amount to only 0.6 per cent. In this regard, it is likely that in the future outlook will also be seriously adjusted.
According to the report of the IMF, Russia's GDP in 2009 decreased by 6 percent. At the same time restoring the Russian economy will not begin before 2010, when the country's GDP will grow only 0.5 percent. In January 2009 the IMF expected to reduce the Russian economy in 2009 to 0.7 percent and growth at 1.3 per cent in 2010. Growth in consumer prices in Russia this year will amount to 12.9 per cent and in 2010 year - 9,9 percent. The trade surplus in 2009 reached 0.5 percent of GDP, and in 2010 - 1.4 percent of GDP. Economy 12 CIS countries in 2009 decreased by 5.1 per cent, but in 2010 will grow by 1.2 per cent. That is, the former Soviet Union will be more affected by the crisis than the world as a whole.
Some agencies (Moody's, Control Risks) predict the risk of sovereign defaults of countries requiring external assistance (Greece, Ukraine, Kazakhstan).